Decline is just one percent compared to July 2008

One year on since the world’s airlines began to curb their seat capacity in the face of global economic pressures, the cutbacks are starting to stabilise with just over 315 million seats on offer this month, a drop of just one percent over July 2008 levels, reports OAG, the world’s leading aviation data business, as it releases its monthly report on trends in the supply of airline flights and seats.

David Beckerman, vice president OAG Market Intelligence, said, “Airline capacity is often cited as a barometer of economic confidence.  Carriers adjust their fleet and services in anticipation of market demand for air travel, which is vulnerable to corporate cost management and to disposable income of leisure travellers at times of financial uncertainty."

Beckerman continued, "The OAG figures, which amalgamate the planned operations for airlines worldwide, show a clear and very welcome upward trend from the dramatic declines we have seen in recent months.  We can only wait and see if this outlook bears financial fruit in actual passenger numbers and airline load factors.”

The world’s airlines have scheduled a total of 2.55 million flights for July 2009, down by 3% compared with the same month last year, with a drop in capacity of 3.3 million fewer seats on offer to travelers around the globe.  Last month, the year-on-year global frequency and capacity figures were down by 4% and 2% respectively.  The month-by-month trend since the start of the economic downturn can be seen in charts.

Within this global figure of all scheduled passenger flight operations, the Low Cost sector accounts for 468,217 flights (18.3%) and 69.7 million seats (22.1%).  Worldwide, frequencies and capacity in the Low Cost sector are up by 2% compared to a year ago.  When this is analysed by region, there is healthy growth to/from and within all regions with the exception of low cost services within Europe (4% fewer flights and 3% fewer seats) and within North America (7% fewer flights and 8% fewer seats).

The figures are revealed in the July 2009 edition of OAG FACTS (Frequency & Capacity Trend Statistics), the dynamic monthly market intelligence tool providing the latest data on current passenger airline activity around the world.

Analysis by Region:
International services to and from Europe are showing virtually no change in frequencies or capacity compared to July 2008. Flight schedules within the region are not holding up so well, with 6% fewer flights and 4% fewer seats year on year.

Flight volumes and seat capacity within North America have taken another sharp fall of 7% (64,695 fewer flights and 5.7 million fewer seats).  International frequencies to and from the region have dropped by 6% with a 5% fall in capacity.

Latin America is seeing growth in air service within the region, with a rise of 2% in frequencies (2,894 more flights) and 4% in capacity (826,000 more seats).  Operations to and from the region, however, are down by 6% with 4% less capacity.

Figures for Asia also show a contrast between services within, and to/from the region. Intra-regionally, there is 3% growth in frequencies (15,380 more flights) and 4% in capacity (3.3 million more seats) compared with July 2008, continuing the steady growth trend of the last 5 years.  For services to and from the region, there is a 2% drop in capacity on 3% fewer flights.

The Middle East region continues to enjoy an upward trend on all counts.  Flights and capacity for travel to and from the region are up by 14%, representing an additional 6,336 more flights and 1.4 million more seats than in July 2008, while the number of flights and seats offered within the region are up by 16% and 17% respectively.

Flights to and from Africa are up by 10% (3,461 more flights) with a 12% rise in capacity of 767,000 more seats.  Air service within the region is also showing an upturn year-on-year with a 1% rise in the volume of flights and 2% more seat capacity.

Analysis by Major Routes
On the key long-haul routes, the OAG figures for July show continued growth between Western Europe and the Middle East, and between Western Europe and Africa, with upturns in capacity of 17% (506,000 more seats) and 10% (429,000 more seats) respectively compared with July 2008. 

The transatlantic market between North America and Western Europe shows a 6% fall in capacity year on year, representing 443,000 fewer seats.  There also will be 6% less capacity (431,000 fewer seats) on services between North America and Central/South America. 

Mexico City is showing the largest capacity cutback on services between Latin America and the USA & Canada with 141,000 fewer seats, while Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are showing the largest year on year increases in capacity between the regions with more than 20,000 additional seats to and from North America for July 2009.

Airlines operating transpacific routes are scheduled to offer 215,000 fewer seats this month than a year ago, a drop of 7%.  San Francisco airport is showing 86,000 fewer seats on offer to and from Asia Pacific than a year ago, and Hong Kong is showing a downturn of 61,000 seats to and from North America.

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OAG FACTS enables you to see trends at-a-glance. An easy to use tool providing the latest data on current airline activity around the world. Updated monthly, it uses interactive graphs to display a visual trend of the performance of a specific airport, route, country or region from 2001 - 2009.