Year on year decline below 3% for first time since October 2008

This may be the 11th successive month of cutbacks in global airline schedules; however the rate of decline in seat capacity is lower than at any time since October 2008, reports OAG, the world’s leading aviation data business, as it releases its monthly report on trends in the supply of airline flights and seats. 

The world’s airlines have scheduled 4% (104,216) fewer flights for June 2009 compared with the same month last year, with a 2% drop in seat capacity of 6.7 million fewer seats.  The total number of flights scheduled to operate worldwide this month is 2.43 million, offering 297.5 million seats to travelers around the globe. 

David Beckerman, vice president OAG Market Intelligence, said, “As the Northern Hemisphere begins its summer holiday season, the airline community is curbing its capacity cuts in anticipation of a welcome boost in air travel.  However, we shouldn’t assume that this is the start of recovery and growth; the outlook remains uncertain and figures are still down year-on-year, but it does indicate a glimmer of economic confidence.”

Within this global figure of all scheduled passenger flight operations, the Low Cost sector accounts for 442,730 flights (18.2%) and 65.7 million seats (22.1%).  Worldwide, frequencies and capacity in the Low Cost sector are virtually unchanged from a year ago, with 0.3% more flights and 0.05% more seats on offer than in June 2008.

The figures are revealed in the June 2009 edition of OAG FACTS (Frequency & Capacity Trend Statistics), the dynamic monthly market intelligence tool providing the latest data on current passenger airline activity around the world.

Analysis by Region:
Flight schedules within Europe are down by 7% compared to June 2008, with 44,554 fewer flights. Capacity within the region is down by 5% with 3.7 million fewer seats on offer.  International services to and from the region are holding up much better, with declines of just 2% in frequencies and in seat capacity.

Latin America shows a marked difference between intra-regional activity and services to and from the region.  Air service within the region is virtually unchanged from a year ago, with just 628 fewer flights for the month and a 1% rise in capacity (246,000 more seats).  Services to and from the region, however, are down by 10% with 7% less capacity.

Figures for Asia also show a contrast between services within, and to/from the region. Intra-regionally, there is 2% growth in frequencies (7,818 more flights) and 3% in capacity (2.07 million more seats) compared with June 2008.  For services to and from the region, there is a 2% drop in capacity (down by 311,000 seats) on 3% fewer flights. 

The Middle East region continues to enjoy an upward trend on all counts.  Flights and capacity for travel within the region are up by 23%, while the number of flights and seats offered to/from the region are both showing growth year on year of 13% and 14% respectively for June 2009. This represents an additional 5,360 flights and 1.3 million seats on offer to and from the Middle East.

Flights to and from Africaare up by 7% (2,181 more flights) with an impressive 9% increase in capacity of 529,000 more seats.  The volume of flights within the region is flat year-on-year compared to June 2008 with a 1% rise in capacity.

Analysis by Airport – Highlights:
The airport with the highest increase in the volume of scheduled services is Atlanta Hartsfield with 2,853 more services (4% growth) than in June 2008.  The airport with largest cutback is Los Angeles with 7,539 fewer flight operations (a drop of 15%).  When the figures are analysed by seat capacity, Tokyo Haneda shows the largest increase with an additional 868,000 seats available to/from this hub (up by 13%), while Chicago O’Hare shows the largest decline with 717,000 fewer seats (down by 9%).

Analysis by Major Routes
On the key long-haul routes, the OAG figures for June show continued growth between Western Europe and the Middle East, and between Western Europe and Africa, with upturns in capacity of 15% (407,000 more seats) and 7% (266,000 more seats) respectively compared with June 2008.  The transpacific routes, however, show a 10% fall in capacity year on year, representing 317,000 fewer seats; while there will be 9% less capacity (608,000 fewer seats) on services between North America and Central/South America. 

Airlines operating transatlantic routes between North America and Western Europe are scheduled to offer 513,000 fewer seats this month than a year ago, a drop of 7%.  London Gatwick shows a sharp downturn in capacity of 30% on transatlantic services, while Madrid has a 12% increase in the number of seats on offer on flights to and from North America.

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OAG FACTS enables you to see trends at-a-glance. An easy to use tool providing the latest data on current airline activity around the world. Updated monthly, it uses interactive graphs to display a visual trend of the performance of a specific airport, route, country or region from 2001 - 2009.