OAG Aviation - Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul

Executive Summary

OAG Aviation, in combination with partner AeroStrategy, has just released their most recent MRO service demand projection for the next ten years, which takes into consideration the significant global down-sizing in schedules frequency and capacity reductions that have been filed with OAG in the past 6 months. OAG reported a global reduction in schedules and seat capacity on 24 March 2009.

John Weber, Managing Director – OAG Aviation, indicates that in very general terms, aircraft utilization on a global scale normally grows an average of 3.4% per year. "Scheduled airline frequency and capacity cutbacks made over the past 6 months will have a significant impact on planned aircraft utilization, with a corresponding short-term downturn in demand for MRO services. We are projecting a worldwide drop of - 4% in average aircraft utilization in 2009 compared to 2008, with only modest recovery in 2010. Normal levels of aircraft utilization growth are not expected to return until 2011."

On a regional basis, world regions most highly affected by a drop in aircraft utilization in 2009 will be North American (-7%) , Western Europe (-5%), and Asia-Pacific (excluding China/India) which will be down -4%. Least affected in 2009 will be China, Eastern Europe, Africa, India and Latin America.

Based on the 10 year forecast, aircraft utilization of operators in North America and Western Europe, currently representing 61% of the worldwide market share, will drop to 55% in 2018. This will drive the demand for MRO services up in other world regions, particularly in Asia-Pacific (including India and China).

Other highlights from the Fleet and Utilization Forecast indicate:

Worldwide fleet will grow at a 3.3% CAGR over the 10 year forecast period (2008-2018), reaching over 27000 in-service aircraft by 2018.
long-range, twin-aisle fleet will grow over twice the market average.
nearly 5000 airframes will retire by 2018.
Engine growth will reflect the continuing shift to 2 engine aircraft.
Airbus will outpace Boeing in single aisle aircraft deliveries, but Boeing will outpace Airbus in twin aisle aircraft deliveries.
Over the next 10 years, aircraft retirements will peak in 2016-17 and will be double the average retirement rates of 2009-2013

The full Fleet and Utilization 10 year forecast includes both the annual number of installed airframes and engines by type and by world region, as well as projected utilization (aircraft/engine hours) from the baseline 2008 through 2018, taking into account the existing 2008 active fleet; existing orders for new aircraft; expected new orders, migrations to/from storage, conversions and retirements.

OAG's Commercial Aircraft Fleet and Utilization Forecast is a 47-page
in-depth report tracking 10 year future trends for 2008 - 2018, priced at USD $1,995. It is one of six reports on the Commercial Aviation MRO sector covering airframe, engine, components, modifications and line/field maintenance.

For information on any OAG MRO Forecast Reports, or to discuss your MRO data needs, please contact your local OAG office below.
Americas Paul Chen Business Development, MRO T: +1 630-515-3602 paul.chen@oag.com or custcare@oagaviation.com	Asia Pacific Mario M. Hardy Vice President, Asia Pacific T: +65 6395 5878 mario.hardy@oag.com or customers.aspac@oagaviation.com	Europe, Middle East & Africa Mick Walker Business Development, MRO T: +44 (0)1582 695192 mick.walker@oag.com or customers@oagaviation.com