September Executive Summary
| Global Performance Highlights Global scheduled airline flights are expected to decrease by 0.4% in September 2012 versus 2011, although seat capacity will be 2% higher. Worldwide, airlines have decreased flights by 11,799 and increased seats by 6,088,628. The total number of scheduled flights operating in September 2012 will be 2,615,534 and offered seats 340,191,374. |
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| For the year to date (January to September 2012), scheduled flights are expected to grow by 1% versus the same period last year, resulting in an increase of 324,842 flights. Seat capacity will also increase by 3%, meaning there will be 92 million more seats for the year to date versus last year. |
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| Global Hubs – Top 10 by Seat Capacity (To/From) Seat capacity performance at the top 10 global hubs is expected to be mixed in September 2012 with only half of the airports recording increases in capacity. Of these, Dubai (DXB) is expected to have the greatest increase with 8% more flights and 12% more seats when compared to September 2011. Atlanta will retain its position as the largest global hub in September 2012, with flights static on the same period last year, although seats are expected to increase by 2%. The gap between Atlanta and Beijing is narrowing with just under 248,000 seats less at Beijing in September 2012, compared to 544,000 seats difference last September. |
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| Seats and flights will decline at Heathrow, Chicago, Paris and Los Angeles. Frankfurt has moved up to be the 5th largest hub by seat capacity in September 2012, from 6th largest last year. |
| Market Structure Globally, low cost carriers continue to take market share from other carriers. In September 2012, low cost seats will remain at 26% of the market, an increase of 1% on the previous year. The number of flights is also expected to increase by 3%, keeping the worldwide market share to 22%. In September 2012 there will be 19,000 low cost flights per day compared to just under 7,000 per day 10 years ago. |
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| At the regional level, analysis of Within low cost seat capacity highlights that only the Asia/Pacific and Middle East regions will see growth in seats, of 32% and 16% respectively. This equates to an additional 5.8 million seats in Asia/Pacific alone and over 145,000 extra seats in the Middle East. This is a marked contrast to the rest of the world regions where low cost seats are all down on September last year. Europe in particular is down by just over 1 million seats. |
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| Regional Overview Analysis of expected seats by region for September 2012 reveals that To/From seat capacity is growing in all regions except Africa where it is flat. The Middle East is once again the fastest growing with scheduled airlines adding the equivalent of 22,000 extra daily seats for September 2012 compared to September 2011. Seats will grow by 5% whilst flights will increase by 4%. |
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| Asia/Pacific capacity continues to be the only region where Within traffic is growing, with an increase of 6% in flights and 7% in seats expected for September 2012 versus 2011. This translates to 37,000 more flights and 7 million more seats. All other regions have seen either no change (Central & South America) or decreases in seat capacity for September 2012 versus 2011. North America is expected to record the greatest volume decrease, with a fall of just under 1 million seats and 28,000 flights, continuing the recent trend. Key Routes Analysis of key global routes indicates that the strongest growth in seat capacity continues on Western Europe To/From the Middle East and also on the USA & Canada To/From Central/Latin America which are expected to grow by 7% and 6% respectively. The USA & Canada To/From Western Europe remains static in terms of seat capacity and down 1% on flights versus September 2011. |
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| The key routes on USA & Canada To/From Asia Pacific are also expected to be down by 2% on seats and static on flights. Africa The number of flights To/From Africa in September 2012 will increase by 2% versus 2011. Seat capacity will remain flat overall although the regional analysis identifies that decreases in North Africa are offset by increases in the other regions. Traffic Within Africa is expected to continue to decrease by 5% in flights and 2% in seat capacity. |
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| For traffic Within Africa, Eastern Africa is expected to increase by 144,000 seats, up 14% versus September 2011 although flights will decline by 3%. The three remaining regions will see a decrease in both flights and seats in September 2012 versus 2011, with the greatest decline seen in Central/Western Africa which will fall by 1,361 flights. Northern Africa will see the greatest decline in seat capacity with 127,000 less seats, an 11% reduction on September 2011. This reflects the on-going political instability in the region. |
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| LCC traffic in Africa accounts for 13% of To/From seats and 11% of Within Africa seat capacity. Within Africa LCC flights and seats declined again in September 2012 by 16% and 8% respectively. |
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| Asia/Pacific The Within Asia/Pacific market remains the largest globally by seat volume, and airlines in the region will operate 36,676 more flights and just over 7 million more seats than in September2011, resulting in an increase of 6% in flight operations and 7% in seat capacity. The greatest increase will again be in the North East Asia sub region in September 2012, where seats will increase by nearly 4.4 million. |
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| LCC seat capacity within the Asia/Pacific region will grow by 32% in September 2012 on the previous year, with flights due to increase by 24%. All of this growth in seat capacity is within the sub-regions of South East Asia, North East Asia, and South Asia where seats will increase collectively by just over 241,000 per day in September 2012, adding a total of 7.2 million extra seats versus September 2011. |
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| LCC Seat capacity Within South East Asia is up by 76%, which equates to an extra 4.4 million seats versus September 2011. To/From LCC seat capacity is also increasing across Asia/Pacific except for the Central Asia and SouthWest Pacific Regions. |
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| Central & South America The number of flights and seat capacity To/From Central & South America will increase by 5% and 4% respectively in September 2012 versus 2011. Within Central & South America flights will also increase by 1% although seats will remain flat versus last year. |
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| For traffic To/From Central & South America, all regions will have growth in seat capacity and flight operations in September 2012 versus 2011. For Within traffic, both Lower South America and Central America will see decreases in seat capacity of 3% and 2% respectively. For Lower South America this continues a trend of reductions in seat capacity in the Argentine and Brazilian domestic markets which are expected to decrease by 52,000 and 345,000 seats respectively. |
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| These reductions offset the continued strong growth taking place in Chile, where Domestic seats offered increased by 56,722 and International seats by 53,275. LCC flight operations and seats are a significant part of the market in this region. For Within Central & South American traffic, LCC carriers will account for 32% of all seats in September 2012, which will be a slight reduction versus September 2011. To/From Central & South America is the fastest growing with an additional 2,348 flight operations and 354,941 seats in September 2012, increases of 33% and 34% respectively when compared to September 2011. Europe Flight operations and seats Within Europe have decreased by 3% and 0.6% respectively versus 2011, resulting in 21,905 less flights and 492,541 less seats. Within capacity in the European Union will see the greatest decrease with a drop of 23,520 flights and 1.4 million seats. Analysis shows that the domestic markets in the EU’s largest countries (with the exception of France) will all see significant capacity reductions when compared to last September. These reductions are equivalent to 47,000 less seats every day in September 2012 versus 2011. |
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| Flights and seats To/From Europe are expected to increase by 1% with 852 extra flights and 300,251 additional seats, taking the total capacity to 26 million seats for September 2012. |
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| The LCC market share of Within Europe traffic is down 1% to 36% of all seat capacity in September 2012 versus 2011. Like overall traffic, LCC capacity Within Europe is also down with a 4% reduction in flights and 3% reduction in capacity. This is driven mostly by reductions in domestic capacity in Germany, Italy and the UK. Germany and Spain’s International LCC capacity is also significantly down by 34% and 8% respectively versus September 2011. |
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| Middle East The Middle East region continues to see strong growth in both seat capacity and flight operations, with To/From traffic in September 2012 expected to grow by 4% to 59,771 flight operations and seats by 5% to 13.1 million when compared to September 2011. Fast paced growth continues in the UAE To/From market, which sees an increase of 2,777 flights and 947,570 seats in September 2012 versus 2011. This equates to an additional 32,000 daily seats. Within Middle East traffic is down this month with flights and seats both expected to decrease by 3%. |
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| Low cost operations continue to grow their market share of Within Middle East capacity, with 15% of total seat capacity in September 2012, an increase from 12% in September 2011. Within the Middle East, LCC flights and capacity are expected to grow by 16% with 856 additional flights and 145,658 seats in September 2012 versus 2011. To/From LCC flights and capacity will also grow significantly, by 18%, leading to 1,048 extra flights and 182,139 additional seats. |
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| Strong performance continues at the majority of the region’s main hubs with the exception of Jeddah (JED) which is down by 123,456 seats versus September 2011 and Beirut (BEY) which is down by 29,022 seats. Dubai (DXB) will again record the greatest volume increases with 663,569 additional seats and 1,885 additional flight operations when compared with September 2011. This equates to a growth rate of 8% for flights and 12% for seats and sees the airport adding the equivalent of 22,000 extra seats per day in September 2012 versus 2011. Abu Dhabi (AUH) remains the fastest growing hub in the region with seat capacity expected to increase by 16% in September 2012 versus 2011 to 1,661,512. Doha (DOH) and Riyadh (RUH) will also see strong growth in seat capacity of 10% and 5% respectively. North America Flights and offered seats To/From North America have increased by 3% and 2% respectively. The total number of flights that will operate To/From North America in September 2012 is 84,437 and seat capacity is 17.4 million. Traffic Within North America continues to decline to its lowest point for the last 10 years, with a 3% reduction in frequencies and 1% decrease in seats in September 2012 versus 2011. |
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| For the year to date (January to Sept 2012) the trend is similar, with To/From traffic recording increases of 4% to flights and 2% to seats, whilst Within Traffic for the year to date will see decreases of 2% to flights and 1% to seat capacity when compared with the same period last year. |
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| Three of the top 10 Hubs (by seat volume) have decreases in both seats and flights in September 2012 versus 2011. These are Chicago (ORD), Los Angeles (LAX) and Las Vegas (LAS). Only San Francisco (SFO), Charlotte (CLT) and Toronto (YYZ) continue to show any real increases in seats and flights. |
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