August Executive Summary
| Global Performance Highlights Global scheduled airline flights are expected to grow by 1% in August 2012 versus 2011, whilst seat capacity will be 3% higher, driven by increasing average aircraft size which has grown from 127 in August 2011 to 129 this year. Worldwide, airlines have increased flights by 16,948 and seats by 9,608,208. This takes the total scheduled flight operations for August 2012 to 2,789,437 and offered seats to 361,193,356. |
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| For the year to date (January to August 2012), scheduled flights are expected to grow by 2% versus the same period last year, resulting in an increase of 336,641 flights. Seat capacity will also increase by 3%, meaning there will be 86,085,989 more seats for the year to date versus last year. |
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| Global Hubs – Top 10 by Seat Capacity (To/From) Seat capacity at 8 of the top 10 global hubs is expected to grow in August 2012 versus 2011. Atlanta will remain the largest global hub in August 2012, with flights static on the same period last year, although seats are expected to increase by 1%. Beijing continues to perform well, with increases to both flights and seat capacity on August 2011. Flights To/From Dubai will grow at almost at the same rate as seat capacity, meaning new flights rather than growth mostly coming from larger aircraft as is the case at London Heathrow and Tokyo. |
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| Seats will decline at both Chicago and Paris CDG by 3%, with Paris recording a steeper decline in flights of 5% on the same period last year. Market Structure Globally, Low cost operators continue to take market share from other carriers. In August 2012, low cost seats will account for 26% of the market, an increase of 1% on the previous year. The number of flights is also expected to increase by 1%, taking the worldwide market share to 22%. Low cost seats and flights have more than doubled in the last 10 years. |
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| At the regional level, analysis of Within low cost seat capacity highlights the contrast between the mature low cost markets of Europe and North America which recorded no growth and the fast paced high growth markets in the Asia Pacific and Middle East regions, which will see growth of 29% and 22% respectively in August 2012 versus 2011. |
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| Regional Overview Looking at trends on a regional basis reveals that To/From seat capacity in all regions is growing. Scheduled airlines operating To/From the Middle East will add 3,954 more flights and 1,016,217 more seats in August 2012 compared to the same period last year, making the region the fastest growing in terms of flights and seat capacity, up 7% and 8% respectively on August 2011. In overall seat capacity, Europe still represents the largest To/From region with 28,220,231 seats in August 2012. North America is the slowest growing To/From region with 2% growth recorded for August 2012. |
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| The Within data shows a slightly different story, with strong growth in seat capacity expected in the Asia/Pacific region, but static growth in Africa, and a decline in seats will occur in North America, reflecting the continuing effects of recent airline consolidation. Within Asia/Pacific is the largest market by seat capacity, and shows the strongest growth in flight operations. There will be 35,625 more flights and 7,549,819 more seats in August 2012 versus 2011, taking the total market size to 707,048 flights and 108,274,352 seats. Key Routes Analysis of key global routes indicates that there is growth across all of these markets, particularly in Western Europe To/From the Middle East where there will be an additional 1,082 flights and 394,383 seats in August 2012 versus 2011. |
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| US/Canada To/From Western Europe traffic will see a decrease in flights by 342 although seats will increase by 68,557 in August 2012 versus 2011. Africa The number of flights and seat capacity To/From Africa will increase by 6% and 4% respectively in August 2012 versus 2011. Traffic Within Africa is expected to decrease by 3% in flights and 0.1% in seat capacity. |
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| For traffic Within Africa, all regions will have static or declining flight operations in August 2012 versus 2011, with the greatest decline seen in Southern Africa, which will decrease by 873 flights. Northern Africa will also experience a decrease on August 2011, with 784 less flights, and 98,480 less seats. This reflects the on-going political instability in the region. |
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| LCC traffic in Africa accounts for 12% of To/From seats and 10% of Within Africa seat capacity. This has grown considerably in the last 10 years from a small base, however has declined in August 2012. |
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| Asia/Pacific The Within Asia/Pacific market is the largest by seat volume, and airlines in the region will operate 35,625 more flights and 7,549,819 more seats than in August 2011, resulting in an increase of 5% in flight operations and 7% in seat capacity. The greatest increase will be in the North East Asia sub region, where seats will increase by 5,294,856 in August 2012. |
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| As reported earlier, LCC seat capacity within the Asia/Pacific region will grow by 29% in August 2012 on the previous year. The majority of this growth in seat capacity is within the sub-regions of South East Asia, North East Asia, and South Asia who collectively represent 86% of all LCC seat capacity in the region. |
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| LCC Seat capacity Within South East Asia is up by 70%, which equates to an extra 4,123,011 seats versus August 2011. To/From LCC seat capacity is also increasing significantly in most sub-regions. |
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| Central & South America The number of flights and seat capacity Within Central & South America will increase by 3% in August 2012 versus 2011, with a total of 235,852 scheduled flights operating and seat capacity of 25,363,369. Traffic To/From Central & South America is also expected to increase by 3% with 1,990 more flights and 287,449 more seats. |
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| Within Central & South America, all regions will have growth in seat capacity and flight operations in August 2012 versus 2011, with the exception of lower South America (the largest sub-region overall by seat volume) which will decline by 1% on seat capacity despite flight operations increasing by 2%. This is mostly due to decreases in Argentina of 19% in Domestic seat capacity and 7% on International seat capacity. This equates to 175,848 seats and 94,502 seats respectively. |
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| These reductions offset the strong growth taking place in Chile, where Domestic seats offered increased by 87,716 and International seats by 39,682. All sub-regions will experience growth in To/From traffic, with Upper South America and Central America expected to grow at 10% and 8% respectively. LCC flight operations and seats are a significant part of the market. For Within Central & South American traffic, LCC carriers will account for 32% of all seats in August 2012, which fell slightly versus August 2011. To/From Central & South America is the fastest growing with an additional 1,936 flight operations and 295,790 seats in August 2012, which is an increase of 20% and 21% respectively when compared to August 2011. Europe Flight operations Within Europe have decreased by 2% but seats have increased by 1% in August 2012 when compared with August 2011, resulting in 11,393 less flights and 536,021 more seats. Average seats per aircraft have increased from 129 to 132 for Within Europe traffic. |
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| Flights and seats To/From Europe have both increased by 2% and 3% respectively. There will be 2,135 more seats and 734,074 seats in August 2012 versus 2011. The average seats per aircraft have also increased from 225 to 227. |
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| LCC Within Europe traffic has become an important part of the European market, reaching 38% of total seat capacity in August 2011. This will fall slightly in August 2012 reflecting a reduction in flights and seats in LCC traffic within Western Europe where there are 6,303 less flights and 698,204 less seats versus August 2011. Eastern Europe is the only sub-region where Within LCC seats and flights are growing. There will be 1,603 more flights and 146,825 more seats in August 2012 versus 2011. |
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| Middle East The Middle East region continues to see strong growth in seat capacity and flight operations, with To/From traffic in August 2012 expected to grow by 7% to 64,252 flight operations and seats by 8% versus August 2011 to reach 14,219,564. Almost all this growth will occur in the UAE To/From market, which sees an increase of 3,906 flights and 1,102,845 seats in August 2012 versus 2011. Within Middle East traffic is also expected to grow with a reported 48,958 flights scheduled and 7,484,129 seats, increases of 4% and 3% respectively. |
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| Low cost operations are becoming an increasingly larger share of the market in the Middle East, with the Within Middle East market expected to account for 13% of total seat capacity in August 2012. This equates to 990,124 seats and 6,075 flight operations, and compared to August 2011, is an increase of 22% in seats and scheduled flights. |
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| With the exception of Beirut, the main hubs in the Middle East will all experience strong growth in To/From seat capacity in August 2012 versus 2011. Abu Dhabi (AUH) will see seats increasing by 248, 896 and flight operations by 836, whilst Dubai (DXB) will record the greatest volume increases with 782,544 additional seats and 2,694 additional flight operations when compared with August 2011. Both Doha (DOH) and Bahrain are also expected to grow by 11% on last August, with increases of 244,470 and 114,560 seats respectively. North America Flights and offered seats To/From have both increased by 2%. The total number of flights that will operate To/From North America is 98,069 and seat capacity is 19,866,352. Traffic Within North America has decreased by 2% in numbers of flights and 1% in seat capacity. Within North America traffic continues to be affected by capacity reductions with flight operations down by 21,401 to their lowest point in the last 10 years, whilst offered seats are down by 953,083 when compared with August 2011. |
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| For the year to date (January to August 2012) the trend is similar, with To/From traffic recording increases of 4% to flights and 3% to seats, whilst Within Traffic will see decreases of 2% to flights and 1% to seat capacity when compared with the same period last year. |
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| Three of the top 10 Hubs (by seat volume) have decreases in August 2012 versus 2011. Chicago (ORD), Dallas (DFW) and Denver (DEN) all have reductions in seats. Only San Francisco (SFO), Charlotte (CLT) and Toronto (YYZ) have shown any real increases in seats and flights. |
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