Global Analysis

Scheduled airline capacity continues to grow at a rate of 5% year on year which matches the average monthly capacity increase for 2011, based on the latest scheduled data from OAG. The number of flights also increased significantly by 3%. The average number of seats per aircraft frequency also grew again in April, by 1.25% however this is down marginally against the growth of 1.3% in March – the entry of more A380s and B777-300s into airline fleets and schedules supporting the increase.

Looking at the main regional markets, all of them recorded year on growth in available seats and only to/from Central & South America showed any reduction – this being a less than 1% drop in frequencies. This is however an improvement from last month when the reduction was 2.7% year on year.

The fastest growing market is to/from the Middle East which recorded an 11% increase in available seats.  However, routes to/from Asia Pacific had the greatest increase in frequencies, ahead of to/from the Middle East, with 12% (against 10% for the Middle East). This again suggests that the prevalence of A380 operations, most notably by Emirates is continuing the trend of leading capacity growth.

In terms of absolute growth, the intra Asia/Pacific region is the clear leader with an increase of over 6.2 million seats in April 2011 against 2010. Over the last 5 years, the average growth within the region is 7% against the global average of 4% and this is represented by an increase in volume of over 25 million seats over the period.

Source: OAG, includes international capacity to/from the regions

Worldwide low cost scheduled capacity again increased year on year, this time by 8% compared to 10% in March. The highest growth by region is to/from Central & South America for both frequencies and available seats – 28% and 27% respectively. This is a strong jump in capacity as the year on year numbers for March were 15% and 16%. The to/from Africa region recorded a reduction of 3% in both frequencies and seats arguably reflecting the effects of the continuing political instability in the region.

Source: OAG, includes international capacity to/from the regions

Looking at the main hub airports by scheduled capacity, Atlanta is number one again followed by Beijing for the second month. Tokyo Haneda has swapped places again with Heathrow however there will undoubtedly be some further changes during the month as carriers manage their capacity to Japan. Haneda and Heathrow are very close in terms of capacity with only 11,123 seats difference.

Of the top 30 airports in terms of available seats, only Madrid (11^th ) and Denver (15^th ) showed any reductions in volume – 3% and 0.4% respectively.

In terms of absolute volume, Delhi Airport had the largest growth (825,000 seats) followed by Hong Kong with over 760,000 seats. There are four European airports in the bottom five airports for the month in terms of lost volume year on year – Madrid, Cologne, Athens and Stansted. The Athens market continues to digest the Olympic/Aegean merger, coupled with tough economic conditions in that market. Stansted saw a reduction of 284,000 seats reflecting in part the increasing pressures on domestic UK services with train competition and general reductions from the main based carriers Ryanair and easyJet.  Additionally, Air Berlin moved two services to Gatwick.

Regional Summary

Africa

The total available seats for the region (internal and to/from Africa) grew again year on year. The growth in April was 4% however this has slowed somewhat as the growth for March had been 7% and February 11%. Undoubtedly, the political events in the region are having a sustained effect on scheduled capacity and it is logical to assume that this trend may continue on during the month and beyond. Many services have been cancelled or suspended until more stable political conditions are delivered.  The North African situation is obviously affecting all sectors of the airline industry; full-service and low-cost.

Source: OAG, includes capacity to/from and within the regions

In terms of percentage reductions in available seats by airport, Abidjan and Luanda are actually the most affected globally for the month (-42% and -37%). Political issues surround the fall in capacity in Abidjan.  Marrakech and Entebbe are also in the top ten. However there is some positive news as Hainan Airlines has restored its 3^rd  weekly Beijing-Dubai-Luanda service (from 27 March).

Low cost capacity to/from the region dropped 3% year on year and compares against an increase of 5% in March. Low cost within Southern Africa and to/from North Africa being the main two reductions in the region with 6% and 5% respectively.

North America

Traffic within the region grew modestly again in April with a 2% increase year on year compared to 3% in March. Reviewing the last decade (against other regions) the maturity of region is clear. North America is the only region to record a drop in numbers against 2002 as the legacy carriers continue their battle with low cost and increased competition in a largely saturated market.

Additionally, for the first time, low cost carriers (LCCs) now represent over 30% of available capacity of the domestic US market. The growth in LCC capacity however does not represent any overall growth for the market. LCCs have grown their domestic volume by 40% compared to April 2002 while the overall US domestic market has shrunk 9%.

Source: OAG, includes capacity to/from and within the regions

Europe

Europe records a 2% increase in capacity within the region.  There is a 9% increase in the number of seats operating to and from Europe year on year however this growth is slower than March which was 10% year on year. Europe is a key regional destination for A380 and only the to/from Asia/Pacific region has a higher average aircraft capacity.

As a relatively mature market, similar to the US, it is low cost airlines that have been expanding although the growth has slowed considerably for April. In terms of growth in available seats, what was 12% (to/from Europe) and 7% (within Europe) for March year on year is 2% and 3% for April. UK domestic took a big hit with an 18% drop in available seats. This demonstrates the continuing impact of UK Air Passenger Duty charging and the improvement of rail services – particularly to/from London. Most recently easyJet and Flybe have removed services to the capital from the regions.  More known reductions on domestic services are expected to filter into the May figures.

Low cost seat expansion within Europe was again a modest 3%.  Poland and Denmark (in terms of international service) recorded large reductions with the latter being impacted by Sterling and the loss of Transavia services. Of the top 10 international markets, Germany also saw a reduction in volume which is in part a reflection of Ryanair removing services from Frankfurt Hahn, Weeze (Niederrhein), and Bremen airports in response to changes in the German aviation tax regime.

Source: OAG

Asia/Pacific

North East Asia is the biggest volume growth in the region in April with over 2.3 million seats being added year on year within the region. In particular, China has over 3 million seats being added with domestic being up 7% and international up 12%. Two noticeable service increases are Emirates continuing to extend A380 deployment to Hong Kong on the second daily service and Aeroflot introducing a second daily service to Shanghai. Of the top 10 airports worldwide by capacity, Hong Kong has the highest increase of any airport with a growth of 15% in available seats.

New routes and service restoration to North America, particularly from the main hubs of Beijing, Shanghai and Singapore have helped push capacity growth between Asia/Pacific and the US and Canada up by a combined 29% – the market overall being up 11%.

Source: OAG, includes capacity to/from and within the regions

As mentioned earlier, Delhi had the largest growth worldwide in available seats and this is reflected in the airport having the highest percentage uplift of the major Asia/Pacific airports – Hong Kong and Shanghai following with 15% and 14% growth respectively.

Low cost in the Asia/Pacific region also grew strongly recording a 16% growth in available seats. Again, North East Asia is a key driver of volume in this sector with over 1.1 million seats added in April 2011 against April 2010.

In terms of total worldwide low cost growth for 2011 so far, low cost within Asia/Pacific accounts for over 45% of the uplift in available seats, approaching some 11 million additional seats for the first four months of the year.

OAG FACTS uses interactive graphs to display a 10-year visual trend of the performance of a specific airport, route, country or region. It is updated monthly.